IRAN PAKISTAN CONFLICT AND INDIA

INTRODUCTION

» December 15, 2023 - 11 security personnel killed in a police station attack in Iran’s Sistan Baluchestan province claimed by the Jaish al-Adl.

»  December 25, 2023 - Brigadier General Sayyed Razi Mousavi, a senior adviser to Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was killed in an air strike which Tehran blames Israel.

» January 3, 2024 - A memorial event for Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the Quds Force commander who was assassinated by the U.S. in January 2020 was hit by twin blasts, killing at least 94 people.

All these attacks provoked Iran to attack militants responsible. Also Israel is stuck in Gaza and the U.S. is preoccupied with the Houthis, this gives Tehran some space to make relatively bolder military moves.

THE HISTORY OF IRAN-PAK TIES:

• Before the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, both countries were firmlyallied to the United States.
• In 1955, both joined the Baghdad Pact, later known as the CentralTreaty Organization (CENTO), a military alliance modelled on NATO.Iran provided material and weapons support to Pakistan during its 1965 and 1971 wars against India.
• The 1979 Islamic revolution led to ultra-conservative Shiite regime of Ayatollah Khomeini’s taking power in Iranand Sunni-majority Pakistan was undergoing Islamisation under military dictator Gen Zia-ul-Haq.
• Pakistan and Iran ended up on opposite sides in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of Soviet forces. Iran backed the Northern Alliance against the Taliban,aPakistani creation
• The Iranian distrust of Pakistan increased after 9/11 as Islamabad extended support to the US “War on Terror”.

• THE BALOCH PEOPLE: NATION WITHOUT A STATE

  Balochistan is Pakistan’s largest and least populated province. The Balochs are an ethnically and historically distinct people. They are now divided between three countries: Pakistan, Iran (Sistan and Baluchestan or Asli Baluchestan) and Afghanistan (Nimroz Province). The largest portion of the region is in south-western Pakistan.

  How did it join Pakistan?

  During the withdrawal of the British from the Indian subcontinent, the Kingdom of Balochistan was offered either to join India, join Pakistan or remain independent.

  The king of Balochistan chose to remain independent.

  In 1948, the Pakistan government, with a combination of military and diplomacy, took control of the region and made it a part of Pakistan.

  Balochistan has since seen violent conflicts with the Pakistani government seeking independence.

  In the turmoil, the region has been neglected in terms of development and political representation, fuelling resentment towards the ruling establishment.

  Pakistan responded with anti-insurgency operations with tens of thousands of people “disappeared”, tortured and killed with impunity.

  The militant insurgency added to tensions between Pakistan and its neighbour Iran, which have each accused the other of harbouring separatist terrorists.

  Cross-border attacks have killed scores of soldiers, police officers

  and civilians over the past five years, the latest being Iran’s strike on 17th Jan.

  
  

  ---

  
  

  
  

  India's stand on Balochistan:

  India has long maintained the stance of not interfering in the internal matters of Pakistan or any other country.

  This was despite Pakistan repeatedly bringing up the Kashmir issue over the years.

  However in 2016, when the Independence Day celebration of Pakistan was dedicated to the independence of Kashmir, PM Modi responded by referring to atrocities at Baloch people by the Pakistan Government and Military.

   

  HOW IS INDIA AND THE NEIGHBOURHOOD AFFECTED?

   Regional Groupings: Both Pakistan and Iran are members of the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which also includes India, Russia, and Central Asia (minus Turkmenistan).

  »    India may need to part sides if an issue arises in the grouping. This can again create enmity over India.

    A threat to infrastructure: India has been involved in the planning and building of the Chabahar port.

  »    The port intended to allow India to bypass the overland route through Pakistan for trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia.

  »    Pakistan has always viewed India’s relationship with Iran with concern and the strikes may be aimed at these infrastructures.

   Regional Conflicts: Rising Iran-Pakistan tensions add to multiple crises in the region, with Israel waging a war against Hamas in Gaza and Houthi rebels in Yemen attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

              Fear of nuclear attack: Pakistan, a nuclear-armed country is being attacked and this may motivate the start of nuclear war, which will ultimately affect India and global peace.

   Spill Over: Enhanced risks of the West Asian crisis will spill over into South Asia.

  » The spillover can be in the form of Arms trade, narcotics trade and unrest by supporters of each group/country.

   Trade: The Indian ocean which is already affected by Piracy is now facing new issues like war in the Red sea. This can increase the amount of imports and exports, halting the economy.

  » When issues that are far away from the border effects us, the tensions between Pakistan and Iran will have more deeper effects on India's Trade and economy

  
  

  
  

  INDIA'S STAND

  New Delhi has traditionally stayed neutral in the conflicts within the Middle East. But this will be increasingly hard to do as India’s economic and security stakes rise in the volatile Middle East.

   The Ministry of External Affairs described Iran’s strikes in Pakistan as a matter between those countries.  The ministry also mentioned India’s "uncompromising position of zero tolerance towards terrorism".

    As can be seen as a support for Iran, India said, it understood "actions that countries take in their self defence".

  
  

  WILL THE SITUATION HELP INDIA?
    Fight against state sponsored terrorism: India has always maintained that Pakistan harbours terrorists. Now Iran also supports the view.
  »    This can help India to garner support when dealing with Pakistan and its terror groups in international groupings.
    A bankrupt Pakistan: As Pakistan has issues with its economy and increased tensions in its borders other than India, it may not have enough funds to support terror activities in India.

  Peace Deal: Even Though China is a friend of both Iran and Pakistan, it has shied away from brokering a deal to de- escalate the tensions.

  »    The chance that Pakistan will allow India to be a mediator is a doubt, but this situation can be used to increase confidence and peace between India and Pakistan.

    A combined effort: Once the tension is escalated, both countries will find ways to get over with terror groups.

  »    This will also help to bring down narcotics and arms trade, this will help the region and especially India which is now facing the issue of illegal contraband imports from Pakistan.

  
  

  
  

CONCLUSION