INTRODUCTION

• The Lancet report highlights a significant decline in India's total fertility rate (TFR), from 6.18 in 1950 to a projected 1.29 by 2050, that falls below the replacement rate (2.1) needed for a stable population.

PROJECTION OF FERTILITY RATE

• According to Lancet, the TFR was 6.18 in 1950 which reduced to 4.60 in 1980 and further declined to 1.91 in 2021 and forecasted the fertility rate dip to 1.29 by 2050.

FACTORS FOR THE DECLINE:

1. Socioeconomic factors:

1. Women's Empowerment:

• Education: Higher female literacy rates correlate with lower fertility.

• According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) 2019-21, women with higher education (12+ years) have a TFR of 1.2, compared to 2.4 for those with no education.

• Workforce Participation: Women entering the workforce often delay marriage and childbearing. 

• The Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) for Indian women rose from 27.2% in 2017-18 to 29.3% in 2021-22.

2. Urbanization: As people move to cities, living space shrinks, and raising children becomes more expensive. 

• The urban TFR in NFHS-5 is 1.6, significantly lower than the rural TFR of 2.1.

2. Cultural Factors: 

1. Delayed Marriage: Societal acceptance of later marriages, especially for women pursuing education and careers, can contribute to a decline in TFR.

2. Smaller Family Ideal: A shift towards the "two-child norm" might be emerging, particularly in urban areas with high living costs. Media and social messaging could play a role in promoting this ideal.

3. Rise of DINKs (Dual Income No Kids): According to the Gitnux Market Data Report 2024, the population of DINKs in India is growing at a rate of 30% per year. 

• The 2011 census shows that the DINK lifestyle is prevalent in about 42% of two-member rural families and 22% of similar urban families.

3. Political Factors: 

1. Government Family Planning Programs:

• India's family planning initiatives since the 1960s have promoted smaller families through education, awareness campaigns, and subsidized access to contraceptives.

• The NFHS-5 data shows a rise in modern contraceptive use from 54.1% in 2015-16 to 67.8% in 2019-21. 

2. Political Stability and Economic Growth:

• Stable governments that prioritise social development and economic growth can create an environment conducive to smaller families.

3. Investment in Education and Healthcare: 

• Government policies promoting female education: Such as Mission Shakti, Beti Bachao Beti Padhao, National Conference on Skilling in Non- Traditional Livelihood for Girls “Betiyan Bane Kushal”etc. 

• Government policies Women Health: Organising Health Melas through Ayushman Bharat- Health and Wellness Centres (HWCs), National Free Drugs Initiative, Pradhan Mantri Surakshit Matritva Abhiyan (PMSMA) for pregnant women etc.

• Government policies Child and Infant Care: Rashtriya Bal Swasthya Karyakram (RBSK), Home Based NewBorn Care (HBNC), Janani Shishu Suraksha Karyakram (JSSK) etc.

• Data from various sources like SRS India (Sample Registration System) shows a significant decline in Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) over the years, which shows that better healthcare reduces the need for couples to have many children to ensure some survive to adulthood.

• Budgetary allocation: Ministry of Women and Child Development (WCD) received an allocation of ₹26,092 crore in the 2024-25 budget, which is a 2.53% increase from the previous budget.

POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES:

1. NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES: A fall in fertility rate beyond replacement level leads to:-

1. Shrinking Workforce: A decline in births means a smaller working-age population in the future. This can lead to: 

1. Slower economic growth: It creates a strain on economic output due to a smaller workforce.

• Japan was the first country to experience the implications of falling fertility rates. The increasing dependency ratio has led to near zero GDP growth since the 1990s, and the country is facing fiscal challenges to meet rising social security costs. 

2. Higher dependency ratio: Fewer young people will be available to support a growing elderly population, putting pressure on social security systems. 

• The Lancet predicts the share of senior citizens in India to be over 20% by 2050.

2. Political Unrest: Influx of immigrants from countries with higher population growth could also play a positive part but this would change local demography, leading to political unrest.

2. POSITIVE CONSEQUENCES:

1. Environmental Benefits: A smaller population means less pressure on already strained resources like water and land.

2. Impact on Interest Rates: An ageing population is projected to reduce global interest rates because a larger share of the population will be over 50 and saving for retirement.

3. Window of opportunity:

1. Increased investment and savings: With a high proportion of people in the workforce, there's potentially more disposable income to invest and save.

2. Improved human capital: A smaller number of children can lead to more resources being directed towards each child's education and healthcare. Also the lower fertility impacts women’s education positively.

WAY FORWARD:

1. Focus on the Demographic Dividend: India has a large young population, by investing in their education and skills development, the country can reap the benefits of the demographic dividend and create a more productive workforce.

2. Liberal labour reforms: Encouraging higher female labour force participation rate, and a higher focus on nutrition and health would ensure sustained labour supply and output despite lower fertility.

3. Effectively utilise the skill of Elderly Population: By ensuring adequate social security and healthcare provisions for the growing elderly population.

1. Japan has been at the forefront of promoting active aging, encouraging older adults to remain in the workforce longer and to participate in community activities.

4. Addressing Skill Deficits and Knowledge Economy Gaps: India can create a workforce tailored to industry by adopting the successful Dual education system model from Germany and Switzerland, which integrates theoretical learning with practical training.

5. Support working mothers through Financial assistance: Consideration of tax breaks, child benefits, or subsidies for childcare and education can ease the financial burden of raising children.

6. Skilled immigration: Targeted immigration policy for skilled workers could help address potential labour shortages in the future.

Global Efforts:

• Countries across the globe are experimenting with policies to boost fertility.

• Germany found success in boosting births through liberal labour laws, allowing more parental leave and benefits. 

• Denmark offers state-funded IVF for women below 40 years, and Hungary recently nationalised IVF clinics. 

• Poland gives out monthly cash payments to parents having more than two children, whereas Russia makes a one-time payment to parents when their second child is born. 

• Russia also reinstituted the Soviet-era ‘Mother Heroine’ title, who bore and raised more than 10 children amounting to almost a one-time payment of 13 lakh.

  
  

  SHORT TAKE

  • Total Fertility rate: The total fertility rate in a specific year is defined as the total number of children that would be born to each woman if she were to live to the end of her child-bearing years and give birth to children in alignment with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates.

  • It is calculated by totalling the age-specific fertility rates as defined over five-year intervals. 

  • Assuming no net migration and unchanged mortality, a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman ensures a broadly stable population. (OECD Data).

  • Replacement fertility rate: It is the average number of children born per woman that allows a population to exactly replace itself from one generation to the next.

  
  

CONCLUSION

Lancet report is a message that India’s demographic dividend is not for perpetuity. So by taking Global experiences into consideration, India’s policymakers should come up with scientific and sustainable policies for mitigation.

Tags:
Polity

Keywords:
HEALTH AND FAMILY FERTILITY RATE WOMEN SOCIAL ISSUES