INTRODUCTION

South Asia is a vibrant region brimming with potential, yet burdened by historical baggage and contemporary challenges. At the heart of this complex landscape lies India, a rising economic and strategic power with a multitude of relationships with its neighbours. Examining India's current relations with key regional partners—China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar—highlights both promising opportunities for cooperation and persistent challenges that impede closer ties.

New Opportunities & Challenges.

India and China

Opportunities:

• Trade: Despite border tensions, China remains India's largest trading partner.  In the fiscal year 2024, India's bilateral trade with China totalled $118.4 billion, with imports rising by 3.24% to $101.7 billion and exports increasing by 8.7% to $16.67 billion.Continued economic cooperation offers potential for mutual benefit.

• Global Issues: Collaboration on global challenges like climate change, pandemics, and economic recovery presents opportunities for both countries.

• People-to-People Exchange: Increased cultural exchange and educational programs can foster better understanding and reduce animosity.

• Regional Cooperation: Both nations could work together for regional stability and development in South Asia.

Challenges:

• Military Clash: The unresolved border dispute in Ladakh remains a major flashpoint with potential for escalation. Both countries have a history of violent clashes along the LAC, military clashes in 2013 (Depsang), 2014 (Chumar), 2017 (Doklam), 2020 (Galwan), and 2022 (Tawang) as strategic escalations,resulting in casualties on both sides.

• Objection to NSG Membership: China argues that India's application should be considered alongside Pakistan's, as both are non-signatories to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). 

• Border Disputes: China issues stapled visas  on a separate piece of paper  to citizens of Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh to avoid legitimising India's sovereignty over these regions. 

• Restricted Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Since 2020, India has tightened FDI norms for countries sharing land borders, primarily targeting Chinese investments. The Indian government has received around 450 FDI applications from Chinese entities in the past four years, rejecting nearly 180 and approving only around 70.

• Chinese companies, especially in the auto sector, face hurdles in expanding their presence in India. For instance, BYD's plans to invest and potentially set up a joint venture with an Indian company were reportedly rejected.

• Heightened Tensions:Chinese President Xi Jinping decided not to attend the G20 Summit hosted by India in September 2023 and sent Premier Li Qiang instead. This lack of engagement at the highest level further complicates efforts to resolve bilateral issues.

• Security Concerns: China's growing military presence in the region and its support for Pakistan create security concerns for India.

• Trade Imbalance: The significant trade imbalance heavily favours China, posing economic challenges for India.Trade deficit in favour of China had crossed a mammoth $100 billion driven by a 21% rise in Imports from China into India.

• Election results: Chinese media’s reaction to BJP’s reduced Lok Sabha majority implies caution in bilateral relations.Beijing views Modi’s reduced majority as reinforcing China’s power advantage.Chinese  President Xi Jinping has not yet extended his congratulations to  PM Modi on his re-election.

India and Pakistan

Opportunities:

• Economic benefits: Pakistan's business community sees a golden opportunity in normalising relations with India. The sentiment, expressed by prominent figures like businessman Arif Habib, highlights the potential economic benefits of improved ties between the two.

• Trade: While limited due to political tensions, some bilateral trade does exist. There have been proposals to increase trade ties and open new border crossings for trade facilitation.

• Ceasefire Agreement: On February 25, 2021, India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire along the Line of Control (LOC) that divides the Indian- and Pakistani-administered parts of Kashmir. It has proven to be the most enduring attempted LOC ceasefire in more than a decade.

• Prisoners' Exchange: Occasionally, both countries agree to exchange prisoners held on inadvertent border crossings or humanitarian grounds.

• People-to-People Contact: Limited cultural exchange programs and sporting events can foster some level of understanding between citizens. There are also back-channel talks and peace initiatives involving civil society and religious leaders from both sides.

Challenges:

• Kashmir: The Indian government's decision to reclassify Jammu and Kashmir as a union territory and revoke its special status under Article 370 in 2019 emerged as the biggest bone of contention. Both claim the entire territory, with ongoing insurgency in the Indian-administered Kashmir. Pakistan reacted strongly, downgrading diplomatic relations with India and expelling the Indian High Commissioner.

• Cross-Border Terrorism: Pakistan-based militant groups targeting India are a major security concern for India.

• Pulwama Attack: On February 14, 2019, a suicide bombing by the Pakistan-based terror group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel in Pulwama, Kashmir. 

• Operation Balakot: In a significant shift from its usual policy, India conducted preemptive airstrikes on February 26th against a JeM training camp in Balakot, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan.

• Water Sharing:India's issuance of a notice to Pakistan on January 25, 2023, seeking modification of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 has escalated tensions between the two countries. 

• Limited Trust: Deep suspicion and a lack of open communication fuel hostility.

India and Bangladesh 

Opportunities:

• Strong Trade Ties: Bangladesh is India's biggest trade partner in South Asia, and India is Bangladesh's second-largest trading partner in Asia. India is Bangladesh's largest export destination in Asia, with approx USD 2 billion of Bangladeshi exports to India in FY 2022-23.This offers significant economic benefits for both countries.

• Energy Cooperation: India can potentially assist Bangladesh in meeting its growing energy demands by collaborating on energy projects.

• IBFP (India Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline) is the first cross border energy pipeline between India and Bangladesh with a capacity to transport 1 Million Metric Ton Per Annum (MMTPA) of High-Speed Diesel (HSD) to Bangladesh.

• Connectivity and Infrastructure: Improved infrastructure projects, like rail links and ports, can boost trade and economic cooperation.

• Both Prime Ministers jointly inaugurated Indian assisted development cooperation projects of Akhaura-Agartala cross border rail link and Khulna-Mongla Port rail line  in Bangladesh on 1 November 2023 virtually.

• Five bus services routes are currently operational between India and Bangladesh connecting cities of Kolkata, Agartala and Guwahati to Dhaka and further up to Khulna

• Water Sharing: Cooperative agreements on sharing water resources from common rivers can benefit both nations and address a longstanding challenge.

• India and Bangladesh signed an MoU on October 5, 2019, allowing India to withdraw 1.82 cusecs of water from the Feni River for Sabroom town. Another MoU on September 6, 2022, permits both nations to withdraw up to 153 cusecs each from the Kushiyara River during the dry season.

• Security Cooperation: Collaboration on counter-terrorism and border security can enhance regional stability.

• Both countries focus on managing their 4,096 km border through measures like border fencing, joint inspections of boundary pillars, and joint boundary demarcation, including riverine boundaries.

• The joint military exercise 'Exercise SAMPRITI-XI' between the Indian and Bangladesh armies was held at Joint Training Node, Umroi, on October 16, 2023. The exercise aimed to achieve interoperability and familiarise each other with joint task force operations 

• The 5th Annual Defence Dialogue and 4th Tri-Services Talks took place in Dhaka in August. 

• Cultural Exchange: Promoting cultural exchange programs and people-to-people contact can foster deeper understanding and empathy.

• The Indira Gandhi Cultural Centre and the Indian Cultural Centre in Dhaka celebrate common cultural links between India and Bangladesh. 

• In June 2022, India launched a revamped Bangladesh Youth Delegation campaign to attract top Bangladeshi talent from various disciplines

Challenges:

• Water Sharing Issues: While agreements exist, disagreements over water sharing from the Teesta River’s  reduced flow into Bangladesh during the lean season and potential upstream infrastructure projects by India remain a point of tension.

• Non Tariff Trade Barrier: These are mainly in the form of inefficient customs procedures, excessive paperwork, cumbersome export-import procedures, absence of testing facilities, lack of harmonised systems, congestion, inadequate road infrastructure, high demurrages, and sub-optimal trade related infrastructure. 

• Chinese influence: China's substantial infrastructure investments in Bangladesh include a proposed nearly $1-billion loan for a Teesta River management and restoration project. This initiative aims to enhance river basin management, mitigate floods, and address Bangladesh's water scarcity issues.

• A Chinese company committed a big investment for setting up a factory in the Mongla Export Processing Zone (EPZ) that is located adjacent to the Mongla Port in 2023

• Immigration Issues: The influx of undocumented immigrants into India following Bangladesh's formation in 1971 has been a persistent issue, impacting states along the eastern border. This influx has raised significant concerns about resource strain and demographic challenges across India.

India and Myanmar

Areas of Cooperation:

• Strategic Partnership: India views Myanmar as a strategic partner for its "Act East" policy, seeking greater regional integration in Southeast Asia.

• Security Cooperation: India and Myanmar collaborate on counter-insurgency efforts along their shared border and maintain military-to-military cooperation.

• Economic Ties: India is the fifth largest trading partner of Myanmar and 10th largest investor in Myanmar, with significant investments in infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications sectors.

• Connectivity Projects: Both countries are working on developing infrastructure projects to improve connectivity between India's Northeast and Southeast Asia.

• India's projects in Myanmar include the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and the Trilateral Highway Project, linking India's Northeast with Myanmar and Thailand to enhance regional connectivity.

• Cultural and Historical Ties: Buddhism and shared heritage create a foundation for cultural exchange and people-to-people connections.

• Initiatives such as the restoration of the Ananda Temple in Bagan and the preservation of numerous pagodas highlight India's commitment to cultural conservation in Myanmar. 

• The Indian Embassy in Yangon hosts the Swami Vivekananda Cultural Centre, which organises various events including yoga sessions, cultural competitions, and seminars.

Challenges:

• Political Instability: The recent military coup in Myanmar and the ongoing civil unrest raise concerns about stability and human rights. This has led India to adopt a cautious approach in its engagement with the Myanmar junta.

• Border Issues: Porous borders,immigration and insurgent activity along the India-Myanmar border pose challenges.

• India announced on February 8,2024 its decision to terminate the Free Movement Regime (FMR) along the Myanmar border to safeguard India's internal security and preserve the demographic integrity of its Northeastern states,

• Rohingya Crisis: The plight of the Rohingya Muslim minority displaced from Myanmar and seeking refuge in India is a humanitarian concern and a potential source of tension.

A comparison of current status

China: A contentious relationship marked by unresolved border disputes, mutual suspicion, and China's close ties with Pakistan. Dialogue occurs, but trust remains low.

Pakistan: Strained relations stemming primarily from the Kashmir issue. Backchannel talks are attempted, but progress is slow and arduous.

Bangladesh: A largely positive relationship with strong economic and infrastructural cooperation. However, water sharing and trade barriers require further negotiation.

Myanmar: An uncertain situation due to the recent military coup and the Rohingya crisis. Security cooperation persists, but India cautiously navigates its interactions with the junta.

Way Forward

• Diplomatic Dialogue and Confidence Building Measures

• Regular High-Level Engagements: Foster regular dialogues at the highest levels of government to discuss bilateral issues and build trust.

• Track-II Diplomacy: Encourage non-official dialogues, such as academic exchanges and think tank interactions

• Conflict Resolution and Management

• Resolving Border Disputes: Pursue peaceful resolution of border disputes through bilateral negotiations and adherence to existing agreements.

• Conflict Prevention: Establish mechanisms for early warning and conflict prevention to manage potential flare-ups and avoid escalation.

• Economic Cooperation and Integration

• Enhanced Trade Relations: Strengthen economic ties through increased trade, investment, and joint infrastructure projects that benefit both countries.

• Regional Economic Integration: Explore opportunities for regional economic cooperation and connectivity initiatives that promote stability and shared prosperity.

• Security and Counterterrorism Cooperation

• Joint Counterterrorism Efforts: Collaborate closely on intelligence sharing, joint military exercises, and capacity building to combat terrorism and extremist activities.

• Border Security: Enhance border management and security cooperation to address cross-border threats and prevent illegal activities.

• Humanitarian and People-Centric Initiatives

• Humanitarian Assistance: Extend humanitarian aid and support for vulnerable populations, including refugees and internally displaced persons.

• Cultural and Educational Exchanges: Promote cultural diplomacy, educational exchanges, and tourism to enhance mutual understanding and foster lasting ties between people.

• International Engagement and Multilateral Cooperation

• Engagement with International Organizations: Work together within international forums and organisations to address global challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and sustainable development.

• Multilateral Initiatives: Participate in multilateral initiatives and frameworks that promote regional stability, security, and economic cooperation.

  
  

  Short Takes

  Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG): Comprises 48 member countries working collectively to curb the proliferation of nuclear weapons through stringent control over the export of nuclear-related materials, equipment, and technology. India is not a member.

  Free Movement Regime (FMR): An agreement between two or more countries that allows for relaxed border controls and easier movement of people across their shared borders.
  

CONCLUSION

By fostering trust, promoting regional cooperation, and addressing core issues with its neighbours, India can navigate this complex neighbourhood and ensure a more secure and prosperous future for itself and the region.

Tags:
World Affairs

Keywords:
International Relations Neighbourhood National Security